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Reordering the French election calendar : Forecasting the consequences for 2002

Bruno Jérôme, Véronique Jérôme-Speziari and Michael S. Lewis-Beck

French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elec... Full description

Main Author: Jérôme, Bruno
Contributors: Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Published: 2003
Contained in: European journal of political research Oxford : Wiley-Blackwell, 1973 42(2003), 3, Seite 425-440
Journal Title: European journal of political research
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ISSN: 0304-4130
Keywords: Frankreich > Wahl/Abstimmung > Parlament > Election présidentielle 2002 (France, 2002-04-21/2002-05-05) > Wahlrecht > Amtszeit > Wahlprognose > Wahlergebnis/Abstimmungsergebnis > Wahlverhalten/Abstimmungsverhalten > Politische Partei > Parti Socialiste (France) > Haltung von Parteien zu bestimmten Fragen > Politische Einflussnahme > Politische Entscheidung
Wahlforschung/Wahlanalyse > Wahl von Personen > Cohabitation (France)
Language: English
Physical Description: + Tab., Lit. S. 439-440
PPN (Catalogue-ID): 1642710369
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520 |a French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elections? Employing new techniques for French election forecasting, we show that the inversion brought great vote gains to the Socialist-led coalition in both the legislative and presidential arenas. One advantage of this forecasting methodology is that it allows counterfactual comparisons in advance of the actual election contest. Comparing the scenarios 'inversion' versus 'no inversion', the Socialist leadership appeared highly strategic and successful. (European Journal of Political Research / FUB) 
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